Ohio – A new economic analysis is fueling debate across Ohio after projecting that the state could lose more than 51,000 jobs and see billions of dollars disappear from its economy over the next several years as key provisions of President Donald Trump’s 2025 spending law take effect.
The report, released by the Commonwealth Fund, estimates that by 2029 Ohio will rank among the states hardest hit by the legislation, largely because of deep reductions to Medicaid, cuts to food assistance, and the expiration of expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies. Researchers say the combined effect would reach far beyond those receiving government benefits, affecting businesses, healthcare providers, local governments, and the broader economy.
According to the analysis, Ohio is expected to lose roughly 51,200 jobs, placing it eighth nationwide for projected employment losses. At the same time, the state could see approximately $4.4 billion less in federal funding, a decline of about $5.4 billion in gross domestic product, and roughly $368 million less in state and local tax revenue.
The report argues that while the spending package includes some funding intended to soften the impact, those investments fall well short of offsetting the broader reductions.
Ohio is expected to receive approximately $200 million from a rural healthcare fund created by Republicans as part of the legislation. The funding was designed to ease concerns that Medicaid reductions could threaten rural hospitals.
Still, researchers concluded the additional money would not make up for the larger losses.
“While the infusion of $10 billion into state economies for rural health contributes to some economic growth, it is overshadowed by the $31 billion in federal funding cuts to ACA marketplaces,” the report stated.
Medicaid cuts expected to drive broader economic losses
Researchers say one of the biggest factors behind the projected decline is the legislation’s reduction of more than $900 billion in Medicaid spending over the next decade, along with another $187 billion in cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps or EBT.
The analysis also points to the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that had helped many Americans purchase health insurance.
After Congress allowed those pandemic-era subsidies to expire, many Ohio residents purchasing insurance through Affordable Care Act marketplaces reportedly saw their monthly premiums increase sharply. According to the report, many switched to lower-cost plans with fewer benefits, while others left the insurance marketplace altogether. Data from KFF shows enrollment in Ohio’s marketplace declined by about 20 percent this year.
Researchers argue that the spending law not only reduces assistance for lower-income households but also shifts financial benefits toward higher-income Americans through tax reductions. “Under (the Trump spending law), cuts to health and nutrition programs largely harm Americans with lower incomes, while tax cuts primarily benefit those with higher incomes,” the report said.
It also cited estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. “The (Congressional Budget Office) estimates that Americans in with lowest 10% of incomes will lose about $1,200 per year (3.1% of their incomes), while those with the top 10% of incomes will gain $13,600 per year (2.7% of their incomes). Other analyses reached similar conclusions.”
Researchers argue that reduced federal healthcare spending creates ripple effects throughout state economies because hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, nursing homes, and related businesses receive less funding. “In 2029, federal Medicaid funding will drop by $90.9 billion, causing state GDPs to fall by $118.5 billion,” the report stated.
Nationwide, the study estimates Medicaid reductions could eliminate approximately 996,000 jobs by 2029, with nearly half of those losses expected to occur within the healthcare sector. “Medicaid cuts also mean 996,000 fewer jobs nationwide in 2029, half of which will be health-related, including in hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, or nursing homes. States with the largest job losses include California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Texas, Arizona, Ohio, and Michigan, which lose between 150,200 and 36,600 jobs.”
Work requirement debate continues
The Commonwealth Fund also questioned whether one of the law’s largest cost-saving measures—a stricter Medicaid work requirement—will achieve its intended goal.
Supporters of the legislation have argued that requiring more recipients to work will encourage employment and reduce dependency on government programs.
The report, however, disputes that assumption. “Proponents of the law explained that the budget cuts were intended to exclude ‘undeserving’ populations from accessing benefits, such as able-bodied people who choose to not work, claiming these changes would ultimately help them gain jobs and incomes,” the analysis stated.
Researchers added that previous work requirement programs have produced limited success in increasing employment. “But evidence indicates that work requirement programs do little to increase employment because they fail to address underlying reasons for unemployment. Moreover, by reducing the number of jobs in low-income communities, the new law could make it even harder for people to find jobs.”
Online reactions pour in
The report quickly became a major topic of discussion online between Ohio residents.
One commenter said they personally warned lawmakers while the legislation was still being debated. “I told them both that the big beautiful bill was going to hurt Ohio. It was going to be a net loss for the entire state,” the user wrote.
Others said they believed the projected outcome had been obvious long before the bill became law. “It’s sad you could see it coming from a mile away too,” another commenter posted.
Some participants directed their frustration toward Ohio’s Republican leadership. “They don’t understand Trump and MAGA hate the poor whites as much as anyone else. They’re cutting all social safety nets and stealing our tax dollars!” one widely upvoted comment read.
Others focused on what they viewed as the state’s long-term outlook. “As a young professional trying to get a solid career going, I’m quickly losing all faith in Ohio,” one Reddit user wrote.
Meanwhile, another commenter mocked partisan finger-pointing, sarcastically writing, “Obviously it’s the Democrats’ fault. Duh.”
Whether the Commonwealth Fund’s projections ultimately materialize remains uncertain. However, the report has already intensified debate over the long-term effects of Trump’s spending law, with supporters arguing the reforms are necessary to reduce government spending while critics warn the combination of Medicaid reductions, food assistance cuts, and shrinking healthcare funding could have lasting consequences for Ohio’s economy, workforce, and communities over the coming years.
