Ohio – Ohio’s biggest political races may look extremely close in public polling, but inside the Statehouse, many lawmakers appear convinced Republicans will still control the outcome when voters head to the polls in November.
A new Gongwer-Worth survey of members of the Ohio General Assembly found that legislators largely expect Republicans to win both the governor’s race and the high-profile U.S. Senate contest, even as most public polls continue showing virtual ties between the candidates.
The survey, conducted May 12 and 13, asked nearly 50 state lawmakers for their predictions on Ohio’s major statewide races and legislative balance of power heading into the 2026 election season. While the public picture remains highly competitive, the responses revealed far more confidence among legislators that Republicans will ultimately maintain their grip on statewide offices.
The poll did not specify exactly how many Democrats and Republicans participated among the 48 lawmakers surveyed. However, the results were broken down by party percentages, giving a clearer look at how each side sees the political landscape developing.
One of the clearest signs of Republican confidence appeared in predictions surrounding the Ohio Senate. According to the survey, 78% of legislators said Republicans would keep their supermajority in the chamber.
That number included not only Republican lawmakers but also a surprising number of Democrats. Half of Democratic respondents reportedly believed Republicans would still control a Senate supermajority after the election, while 88% of Republicans said they expected their party to maintain dominance.
The outlook became less certain when lawmakers were asked about the Ohio House of Representatives. Democrats overwhelmingly rejected the idea that Republicans would keep their supermajority there, and even within the GOP, cracks in confidence appeared. Roughly 30% of Republican legislators either expressed uncertainty or believed their party could lose its supermajority in the House.
Governor’s race remains unusually unpredictable
The governor’s race continues to attract enormous attention because of how unusual the contest has become.
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton are both political outsiders in terms of elected office experience. Neither candidate has ever won elected office before, marking the first time in Ohio history that the leading candidates for governor come into the race without previous electoral victories.
Despite public polls showing an extremely tight race, lawmakers still leaned heavily toward Ramaswamy in the legislative survey.
Overall, 64% of respondents predicted Ramaswamy would win in November, while 29% believed Acton would pull off a Democratic victory. Another 7% remained undecided.
Party breakdowns revealed predictable divisions but still showed strong Republican confidence. Among Republican lawmakers, 88% said they expected Ramaswamy to win, while only 6% picked Acton and another 6% remained undecided.
Democrats viewed the race very differently. Ninety-two percent of Democratic legislators predicted Acton would become governor, while the remaining Democratic respondents did not commit to either candidate.
Acton, who previously served as Ohio’s health director, became widely known during the COVID-19 pandemic and has emerged as one of the Democratic Party’s most recognizable figures in the state. Ramaswamy, meanwhile, entered the race with national visibility after his presidential campaign and business career.
Public surveys, however, continue showing neither candidate gaining a clear edge statewide.
Senate race seen as more competitive
Lawmakers appeared somewhat less certain about the U.S. Senate race between Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown.
According to the survey, 56% of legislators predicted Husted would win the race, compared to 35% who believed Brown would reclaim the seat he lost in 2024. Another 8% remained undecided.
Unlike the governor’s race, both Senate candidates are deeply experienced political figures with long histories in Ohio government.
Husted previously served as Ohio’s lieutenant governor before being appointed to the Senate in January 2025 to replace J.D. Vance after Vance became vice president.
Brown, meanwhile, represented Ohio in the Senate from 2007 until his defeat by Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024.
Interestingly, Republican lawmakers appeared more willing to believe Brown could still win than they were to predict an Acton victory. Twelve percent of Republican respondents said they expected Brown to defeat Husted, while another 9% remained uncertain.
The broader political environment also continues shaping expectations. Analysts frequently point out that midterm elections often favor whichever party is outside the White House, creating additional uncertainty for Republicans nationally even in states that lean conservative.
That tension now sits at the center of Ohio politics. Public polling continues showing razor-thin races, while many insiders inside the legislature still believe Republicans will survive the challenge once votes are counted.
Whether those predictions hold up will not become clear until Ohio voters make their decisions on Nov. 3, when the state chooses its next governor, senator, and legislative leadership.
