Ohio – President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement continues to dominate the national Republican Party, with recent polling showing roughly two-thirds of Republicans across the country now identifying with it. But in Ohio, a state that has moved steadily to the right in recent election cycles, new data is painting a more complicated picture — one that is suddenly raising fresh questions about Republican strength heading into the critical 2026 elections.
A new poll conducted by the Democracy and Public Policy Network in the Department of Political Science at Bowling Green State University found that only 55% of likely Ohio Republican primary voters consider themselves part of the MAGA movement. While still a majority, the number sits well below the national figure and hints that Trump’s political brand may not be quite as dominant in the Buckeye State as many assumed.
The survey, conducted from April 7-14, 2026, gathered responses from 1,000 registered Ohio voters and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. Researchers noted that the weighted sample reflected an 11-point recalled vote margin for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, meaning the state’s Republican lean was still heavily represented.
Even so, the findings stood out.
Researchers specifically asked Republican primary voters whether they considered themselves part of the Make America Great Again movement. Only slightly more than half answered yes, despite Ohio becoming one of Trump’s strongest states in recent presidential elections.
Some observers initially wondered whether the wording of the survey explained the difference. National polls often ask whether voters are “MAGA supporters,” while the Ohio survey asked respondents whether they considered themselves part of the movement itself.
But researchers suggested that distinction likely does not explain the entire gap.
Only two Democrats planning to vote in the Republican primary identified themselves in the survey, removing the possibility that crossover voting heavily skewed the results.
Instead, the poll suggests a more subtle shift may be underway inside Ohio’s Republican base.
Cracks Beneath the Surface
The findings showed that enthusiasm for Trump among Ohio Republicans may not be as overwhelming as national headlines sometimes suggest. Only just over half of Republican primary voters said they held a very favorable opinion of Trump, while nearly one in five said the country was moving in the wrong direction.
Roughly half strongly approved of the job Trump is doing as president.
That matters because Trump’s political influence has long depended not just on support, but on intense loyalty from his base. If enthusiasm softens even slightly, Republicans could face a more difficult environment in competitive statewide races where turnout and persuasion both matter.
The numbers also revealed sharp demographic differences inside the GOP.
Men were somewhat more likely than women to identify with MAGA, with 58% of men saying they considered themselves part of the movement compared to 53% of women.
Education also created a major divide. Ohio Republicans without four-year college degrees embraced MAGA at much higher rates than college graduates. About 62% of non-college Republicans identified as part of the movement, compared to just 44% of those with degrees.
Age gaps were equally striking.
Among Republicans aged 65 or older, fully 65% identified as MAGA. But support dropped noticeably among younger voters, with fewer than half of Republicans between 18 and 49 saying they considered themselves part of the movement.
That generational split could become increasingly important as Republicans try to maintain dominance in statewide elections without Trump himself appearing on the ballot.
Rural Strength Remains Strong
Despite the softer statewide numbers, the poll also confirmed that MAGA still holds powerful influence among the voters most closely tied to Trump’s political rise.
More than 70% of self-described very conservative Republicans identified with the movement. Born Again Christians also showed especially strong support, with 62% saying they considered themselves part of MAGA.
Religion appeared to play a major role overall. Among voters who described religion as very important in their lives, 61% identified with MAGA. That number dropped sharply among those who said religion was not important to them.
The urban-rural divide remained just as visible.
Republicans living in rural areas and small towns were substantially more likely to embrace MAGA than Republicans living in suburban communities, continuing a political pattern that has shaped both Ohio and national politics for years.
One of the most notable findings involved union households.
For years, Democrats hoped organized labor could act as a firewall against Trump-style politics. But the poll suggested that may still be a major challenge. Republican union members identified with MAGA at nearly the same rate as non-union Republicans, showing how deeply Trump’s movement has penetrated parts of the traditional working-class vote.
That reality could create problems for Democrats like Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton, both of whom will need strong support from working-class and union voters if Democrats hope to become competitive statewide again.
The broader takeaway from the poll is complicated for both parties.
Republicans still maintain a strong advantage in Ohio, and MAGA remains highly influential among core conservative voters. But the numbers also suggest the movement may no longer carry the same unstoppable energy it once did across every corner of the GOP electorate.
At the same time, Democrats cannot assume weakness inside the Republican coalition automatically translates into victories.
The poll instead points toward something Ohio has not truly been in years: a possible battleground once again.
Whether that shift becomes reality, however, will depend on what happens at the ballot box in November 2026.
