Ohio – Trump carried both Ohio and Iowa comfortably in the 2024 election, helping reinforce the view that the two Midwestern states had become reliably Republican. But as the 2026 Senate cycle begins to take shape, some Republicans are warning that neither race can be taken for granted.
One of those voices is longtime Republican strategist and Fox News contributor Karl Rove, who recently pointed to Democratic candidates in both states as potential challenges for the GOP. While Rove stopped short of predicting Democratic victories, he acknowledged that Republicans could be facing tougher contests than many expected just a year ago.
His comments came during a discussion with Fox News Journal Editorial Report host Paul Gigot, who raised concerns about growing Republican vulnerabilities in states that have recently leaned heavily toward Donald Trump.
Gigot pointed specifically to Iowa and Ohio, asking whether signs of trouble in those races reflected declining approval ratings for Trump and broader challenges for Republicans heading into the midterms.
Iowa Suddenly Looks More Competitive
Rove began by focusing on Iowa, where Democrats believe they have found a candidate capable of expanding their appeal beyond the party’s traditional base.
According to Rove, Democratic nominee Josh Turek enters the race with several advantages. He argued that Turek emerged from the primary as the stronger Democratic option because of his ability to attract support from independents and even some Republican voters during previous campaigns in the Des Moines area.
At the same time, Rove cautioned against underestimating Republican candidate Ashley Hinson. He noted that Hinson has also built a political career by winning support outside the Republican base, particularly in parts of northeastern Iowa that historically leaned Democratic. Still, Rove suggested that another statewide contest could end up shaping the Senate race.
The governor’s race has drawn significant attention after Trump-backed Congressman Randy Feenstra lost his primary bid to an outsider candidate. Meanwhile, Democrats rallied behind Rob Sand, currently the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa. Rove described Sand as a strong candidate and suggested his presence on the ballot could increase Democratic enthusiasm and turnout.
That possibility is one reason political analysts have begun paying closer attention to Iowa. The Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating of the Senate race from likely Republican to lean Republican, reflecting a belief that the contest may be more competitive than previously thought.
Rove emphasized that much remains uncertain and that future polling will provide a clearer picture, but he acknowledged that Iowa has become a race worth watching.
Ohio Presents a Different Challenge
While Iowa has attracted new attention, Ohio may be creating even greater concern for Republicans.
The state’s Senate race features former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown attempting a political comeback against Republican Senator Jon Husted, who entered the Senate after being appointed by Governor Mike DeWine following JD Vance’s move to the vice presidency.
Gigot noted that Husted lacks one key advantage many incumbents enjoy. “But Ohio, Sherrod Brown versus Husted, I mean, the Republican hasn’t won in his own right there as a Senate candidate, and that means he’s not really an incumbent in the minds of many voters,” he said.
Rove largely agreed with that assessment. He praised Brown’s political skills and acknowledged that Democrats may have put forward their strongest possible candidate in the race.
At the same time, Rove pointed out that Husted remains a well-known figure in Ohio politics after serving alongside DeWine in a Republican administration that has generally maintained strong support across the state.
Even so, recent polling has fueled speculation that Ohio may be more competitive than expected. One survey showed Brown holding an eight-point advantage over Husted, a result that surprised many observers given Trump’s dominant 2024 performance in the state.
Rove expressed skepticism about that particular poll, saying he believed some of its underlying numbers leaned too heavily toward Democrats. Yet he did not dismiss the broader warning signs. “Nonetheless, yes, the Republicans are in for a battle in Ohio,” Rove said.
He argued that Brown’s name recognition and long political career give Democrats a strong foundation, while Husted faces the difficult task of serving in the Senate while simultaneously running a statewide campaign.
A Different Political Landscape
What makes both races notable is the recent history of the states involved.
Trump won Ohio by roughly 13 points in 2024 and also carried Iowa comfortably. For many Republicans, those results seemed to confirm that both states had moved firmly into the GOP column.
That is why even the possibility of competitive Senate races has attracted national attention.
Rove made clear that he does not believe Democrats are suddenly poised to dominate either state. Regarding Ohio, he specifically questioned whether voters had truly shifted enough to produce what would amount to a dramatic swing from the last presidential election.
Still, his overall message was difficult for Republicans to ignore. Strong Democratic nominees, changing political conditions, and growing voter concerns about national issues are creating uncertainty in places that recently appeared secure for the GOP. Whether that uncertainty ultimately translates into Democratic victories remains to be seen, but according to Rove, both Ohio and Iowa now look far more competitive than many Republicans expected when the election cycle began.
