Ohio – Ohio’s race for governor is shaping up to be one of the country’s most closely watched statewide contests after a new poll showed Democratic candidate Amy Acton with a narrow advantage over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, suggesting the battle remains wide open despite the state’s recent Republican trend.
The latest AARP survey found Acton leading Ramaswamy by three percentage points, with 47% of likely Ohio voters supporting the Democrat compared with 44% backing the Republican. Because the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, the race is statistically tied, reinforcing expectations that the campaign could remain highly competitive all the way through Election Day.
The survey was conducted between June 14 and June 16, 2026, using telephone interviews and SMS-to-web polling. Researchers questioned 800 likely Ohio voters selected from the state’s voter registration list. Among those surveyed, 41% identified as Republicans, 31% as Independents and 28% as Democrats.
Although AARP commissioned the poll, the organization emphasized that it neither endorses candidates nor contributes to political campaigns. The survey was conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward, a Republican polling firm that has described itself as President Donald Trump’s chief polling organization and was recognized as Republican Pollster of the Year in 2025, and Impact Research, a Democratic firm that has previously worked for former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Sharp differences emerge among key voting groups
The poll highlights significant divisions between different parts of the Ohio electorate.
Acton performs especially well among younger voters. Fifty-seven percent of likely voters under the age of 50 said they support her campaign, giving the Democrat a commanding advantage within that age group.
Ramaswamy, meanwhile, enjoys stronger backing from older Ohioans. Among voters aged 50 and above, 51% support the Republican nominee.
Independent voters appear to be another major source of strength for Acton. The survey found she leads Ramaswamy among Independents by 56% to 28%, giving her a sizeable 28-point advantage with one of the state’s most influential voting blocs.
Despite that lead, pollsters cautioned that Acton faces a significant challenge with senior citizens. According to the survey analysis, Acton “has her base more consolidated than Ramaswamy does his,” but she is also “double-digits underwater with seniors.”
That finding could prove especially important because older Ohioans consistently vote at high rates and often account for a large share of the statewide electorate.
Two first-time candidates with very different backgrounds
The contest is unusual for Ohio because neither major-party nominee has previously won elected office.
Acton became widely known during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic while serving as director of the Ohio Department of Health. During that period, she regularly appeared alongside Republican Gov. Mike DeWine to announce health guidance and explain the state’s response to the growing public health emergency.
Her visibility made her one of Ohio’s best-known public officials. At the same time, her role during the pandemic divided voters, with many praising her leadership while others strongly criticized restrictions implemented during that period.
Ramaswamy built his career in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries before entering politics. He sought the Republican presidential nomination during the 2024 election cycle before ending his campaign and endorsing Donald Trump.
The November election will therefore mark the first gubernatorial race in Ohio featuring two major-party nominees who have never previously been elected to public office.
Economy dominates the campaign
Political scientist Robert Alexander of Bowling Green State University believes the race remains highly unpredictable.
He noted that polling in Ohio has largely stayed “within the margin of error,” leaving no candidate as a “clear favorite.”
Alexander also pointed to a broader Democratic strategy focused on reconnecting with voters in areas that have increasingly supported Republicans during recent presidential elections.
“You also see that Democrats are showing up in places that Trump really widened gaps in Republicans’ favor. Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton are campaigning in more rural areas and focusing on kitchen table topics. Ohio has always had a populist streak and leaning into it is good politics for Democrats in this moment,” he said.
The survey suggests economic anxiety may be driving much of the campaign.
Eighty-three percent of respondents described themselves as highly motivated to vote, while roughly six in ten expressed concern about their own financial situation. A similar percentage said they believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.
Trump’s approval rating among those surveyed stood at 42%. While that figure is somewhat higher than his national approval rating of around 38%, it still indicates that a majority of respondents disapprove of his job performance.
When asked about their biggest concerns, Ohio voters overwhelmingly pointed to affordability and rising prices. Grocery bills, healthcare expenses and utility costs ranked among the issues causing the greatest worry. Taxes, government spending and concerns about democracy also ranked high on voters’ priority lists.
Alexander argued that the political mood extends beyond opinions about Trump alone.
He said many Ohioans continue to experience a “general unease” over the economy that has persisted for years, while debates over growing energy costs and the expansion of data centers have also become increasingly important.
The survey also identified one group that could ultimately decide the election: swing voters over the age of 50.
Researchers found that roughly one in six older voters does not consistently support the same political party. Those voters generally lean center-right, making them a critical audience for both campaigns as November approaches.
Although Ohio has steadily shifted toward Republicans over the past decade—with Trump winning the state by roughly 11 percentage points in 2024 after victories of about eight points in both 2016 and 2020—the latest polling suggests Democrats may still have an opportunity to compete statewide.
Republicans continue to dominate many rural counties and white working-class communities, while Democrats have improved their standing in suburban areas around Cincinnati and Columbus. Those suburban gains have not completely erased Republican advances elsewhere, but Acton’s narrow lead indicates the race remains highly competitive.
Ohio voters will ultimately decide who becomes the state’s next governor when they head to the polls on Nov. 3, 2026. Until then, both campaigns appear headed for what could become one of the nation’s closest and most closely watched gubernatorial elections.
