Ohio – A new statewide poll suggests Ohio’s 2026 Senate race is becoming one of the nation’s closest political battles, with former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown holding a slim advantage over Republican Sen. Jon Husted in a contest that could play a major role in determining which party controls the U.S. Senate.
According to a newly released AARP survey, Brown receives support from 48% of likely Ohio voters, while Husted is backed by 45%. Although the former senator currently leads by three percentage points, the result falls within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, meaning the race remains statistically tied and neither candidate has established a decisive edge.
The poll was conducted between June 14 and June 16, 2026, among 800 likely Ohio voters using a combination of telephone interviews and SMS-to-web responses. Participants were randomly selected from the state’s voter rolls. The sample included 41% Republicans, 31% Independents, and 28% Democrats.
While AARP commissioned the survey, the organization emphasized that it does not endorse political candidates or contribute to political parties. The polling was carried out by Fabrizio Ward, a Republican firm that has described itself as President Donald Trump’s chief polling company and earned Republican Pollster of the Year honors in 2025, alongside Democratic polling firm Impact Research, which has previously worked for former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Key voting groups reveal major differences
The survey suggests that Brown’s strongest support comes from younger voters and Independents, while Husted performs better with older Ohioans.
Among voters under the age of 50, Brown holds a commanding 22-point advantage. Husted, meanwhile, leads voters aged 50 and older by eight percentage points, highlighting a sharp age divide that could become a defining feature of the campaign.
Independent voters also favored Brown by a wide margin. The poll found that 57% of Independents support the Democrat compared with just 31% backing Husted, giving Brown a 26-point lead among one of the state’s most influential voting blocs.
The survey also measured how voters personally view each candidate.
Brown posted a 46% favorable rating across Ohio, with relatively consistent support regardless of age. Husted received a 31% favorable rating and performed better among older voters than younger ones.
The race represents an opportunity for Brown to return to the Senate after losing his reelection campaign to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024. Brown represented Ohio in the Senate from 2007 until 2025 and is now attempting a political comeback.
Husted entered the Senate through appointment rather than election. Former Ohio Lt. Gov. Husted was selected by Gov. Mike DeWine after J.D. Vance resigned the seat to become vice president. Because he was appointed to fill the vacancy, the winner of this year’s election will serve only the remaining two years of Vance’s original Senate term instead of a full six-year term.
Mixed polling paints competitive picture
Although Brown leads in the newest survey, polling throughout the year has produced different results.
A Fox News survey conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research between May 28 and June 1 showed Brown with a larger advantage, placing him ahead 53% to 45% among 1,015 registered voters.
Earlier polling favored Husted. A Bowling Green State University and YouGov survey conducted in April found the Republican leading Brown 50% to 47%. Likewise, a March Quantus Insights poll gave Husted a narrow edge of 45.5% to 44.4%.
Taken together, the results reinforce how competitive the contest has become.
Political scientist Robert Alexander of Bowling Green State University noted that nearly every survey has remained “within the margin of error” and that neither candidate has emerged as a “clear favorite.”
Prediction markets have also leaned slightly toward Brown. Kalshi currently gives him a 56% chance of winning the seat, while Polymarket places his odds at 59%. Those markets reflect expectations from traders responding to campaign developments, polling, fundraising and political news, though they are not guarantees of election outcomes.
Alexander believes broader economic concerns may be preventing Republicans from opening a larger advantage in a state that has shifted steadily toward the GOP over the past decade.
Issues such as inflation, tariffs, affordability concerns, rising utility bills and debate surrounding new data centers are all contributing to voter attitudes.
He also believes Brown’s personal political appeal continues to matter.
“Apart from the soured mood, Sherrod Brown is a known commodity and was able to attract a solid number of Trump voters in 2024,” Alexander said. “That is a rare feat in today’s climate. Lastly, in spite of the fact that Jon Husted has been in statewide office for a number of years, many Ohioans don’t know much about him.”
Alexander added that campaign advertising already resembles the “purple Ohio vibes from the 2000s,” when both parties routinely treated Ohio as one of the country’s premier battleground states.
Husted’s campaign, however, dismissed the latest numbers.
Responding to the poll, spokesperson Amy Natoce argued, “Sherrod Brown spent 32 years in Washington with nothing to show for it. Polls will go up and down all summer. What won’t change is that voters fired Brown two years ago after looking at this record, and they’re not willing to go backwards now.”
Despite Ohio’s shift toward Republicans during the Trump era—Trump carried the state by roughly 11 percentage points in 2024 after winning by about eight points in both 2016 and 2020—the Senate race remains unusually competitive. Democrats have gained strength in suburban areas around Columbus and Cincinnati, while Republicans continue to dominate much of rural Ohio and white working-class communities.
Election analysts continue to view the contest as highly competitive. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball now rate the race as a Toss-up after Sabato recently moved it from Lean Republican.
With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority, Democrats would need to gain four seats to reclaim control of the chamber. That makes Ohio one of the most closely watched races in the country heading into Election Day on Nov. 3, 2026, alongside other key contests such as North Carolina. As the campaign unfolds, both parties are expected to invest heavily in a race that could help determine the balance of power in Washington.
