Ohio – Ohio has been one of the Republican Party’s most reliable states in recent election cycles. President Donald Trump carried the state comfortably in 2024, winning by roughly 11 percentage points and reinforcing the idea that Ohio had firmly shifted to the right. But a new poll is now raising serious questions about whether Republicans could face an unexpected challenge in a state they once viewed as safe territory.
A Fox News survey released this week shows former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leading Republican Senator Jon Husted by eight points in Ohio’s Senate race. The findings have energized Democrats and sparked concerns among Republicans as the battle for control of the Senate begins to take shape ahead of the midterms.
Brown, who served three terms in the U.S. Senate before losing his seat in 2024, is attempting a political comeback. Husted, meanwhile, entered the Senate after being appointed by Governor Mike DeWine following JD Vance’s move to the vice presidency.
The new poll found Brown receiving 53 percent support among registered voters compared with 45 percent for Husted. While one poll does not determine an election, the result stands out because earlier surveys painted a very different picture.
Just a few months ago, polling showed Husted with a lead. A Bowling Green State University and YouGov survey conducted before the primary placed him ahead 50 percent to 47 percent. Another poll from Echelon Insights showed an even larger Republican advantage, with Husted leading 51 percent to 45 percent.
The latest Fox News numbers suggest the race has shifted significantly.
Trump’s declining numbers add to Republican concerns
The poll’s findings extend beyond the Senate race itself.
President Trump’s standing with Ohio voters has also weakened dramatically compared to where it stood shortly after the 2024 election.
According to the survey, Trump now holds a 42 percent favorable rating while 57 percent view him unfavorably. That represents a major change from November 2024, when his favorability stood at 52 percent while 46 percent viewed him negatively.
CNN anchor Dana Bash pointed to those numbers as a warning sign for Republicans. “That is a big flashing red sign for the president and for the Republicans on the ballot in this very red state of Ohio,” Bash said.
She emphasized just how much Trump’s standing has deteriorated. “This is the president’s approval rating in Ohio right now. It is 42 percent, 42 percent approval. And the disapproval is 57 percent.”
Bash noted that the president now faces a 15-point approval deficit, substantially worse than where he stood after the election. “And then in November, the disapproval was 57 and 46 percent. And that is a 6 percent. So this is really a big, big problem potentially for the president,” Bash added.
For Republicans, the concern is that voter dissatisfaction with Trump could spill over into down-ballot races.
Brown’s unique strength in Ohio
Another factor helping Democrats is Brown himself.
Political observers have long noted that Brown has managed to win support in Ohio in ways that many other Democrats have struggled to replicate.
CNN correspondent Jamie Gangel highlighted that point while discussing the race. “He has repeatedly done in Ohio what other Democrats haven’t been able to do. I spoke to a Democratic leader this morning, though, who was very happy to talk about Ohio, but did not want to talk about Maine, where they really see a disaster,” she said.
The Fox News survey suggests Brown remains personally popular with many Ohio voters. His favorability rating stands at 53 percent, while 44 percent view him negatively.
Husted’s numbers are weaker. According to the poll, 41 percent view him favorably while 50 percent hold an unfavorable opinion.
The survey also found Brown attracting support beyond his party base. While nearly all Democrats back him, 13 percent of Republicans reportedly support Brown as well. Only 2 percent of Democrats said they support Husted.
Economic concerns dominate the campaign
Analysts believe voter frustration over economic issues may be helping Brown gain momentum.
Affordability remains one of the biggest concerns for Ohio voters. Rising costs for groceries, healthcare, and everyday necessities continue to dominate political discussions throughout the state.
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has also become a major issue, particularly as fuel prices have increased. According to AAA data cited in reporting on the race, Ohio gas prices have climbed from about $3.06 per gallon last year to roughly $4.18.
Andrew Desiderio of Punchbowl News said that concerns about affordability are shaping how many voters view Republican leadership.
Discussing Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer’s growing optimism, Desiderio recalled his initial skepticism. “And I was like, okay, yeah, okay, buddy, we’ll see,” he said. “We’ll see about that. And now, a year later, we are a few months out from the election, and Trump’s poll numbers have plummeted. Ohio is seemingly in play.”
Brown has focused heavily on those economic concerns. In a recent social media post, he attacked Husted over affordability issues, writing, “Gas prices went up, but your commute didn’t get shorter. Health care premiums doubled, but your doctor isn’t charging less. Groceries cost more than ever, but your family still needs dinner on the table. But Jon Husted says affordability isn’t a problem in Ohio. Jon Husted created this crisis, he’ll never fix it.”
Republicans have responded aggressively. Team Husted recently argued, “Sherrod Brown was elected to office in 1974. He was in Washington for 32 years. Yet he can’t name one accomplishment from his time in office. That’s why he’s resorted to lying in his campaign ads.”
With the Cook Political Report currently classifying the race as a “toss-up,” Ohio is increasingly attracting national attention. A state that seemed firmly Republican not long ago is now emerging as one of the most competitive Senate battlegrounds in the country. If Brown’s lead holds, Democrats could pull off one of the most surprising victories of the 2026 election cycle.
